Thursday, June 30, 2011

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  • chantu
    07-21 06:58 PM
    Total (EB1+EB2) from 1998 to 2007 --> 35737, 23401 , 47821, 84222, 78484, 29859, 63825, 107328, 58871, 70859



    So IN THE WORST CASE the total (EB1+ EB2) Visas for 2008 are

    48934 + 48934 + 11,148 + 2,000 = 111,016



    IN THE BEST CASE, ASSUMING USCIS USES ALL 28,795 unused VISAS of AC21 FOR 2008 AND THERE WOULD BE 5,000 UNUSED EB4 VISAS, THE TOTAL EB1 AND EB2 VISAS FOR 2008 ARE GOING TO BE 111,016 +3,000(EB4)+ 2*(28,795/3) = 111,016 +3,000+19196 = 133,212



    ----------------------------------




    Type and class of admission 1998-- 1999-- 2000-- 2001-- 2002-- 2003-- 2004-- 2005-- 2006-- 2007


    Employment-based preferences 77,413-- 56,678-- 106,642--178,702--173,814--81,727--155,330--246,877--159,081--162,176

    First: Priority workers 21,375-- 14,844-- 27,566-- 41,672-- 34,168-- 14,453-- 31,291-- 64,731-- 36,960-- 26,697

    I am amazed by your calculations and how much effort you put into this. What is the conclusion come october. EB2 I will move fwd or will be current or will be retrogressed?





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  • Legal
    07-24 07:10 PM
    Have some more comments from Atty Ron. Might be interesting to discuss if already not brought up.

    "Some thoughts on India E2 movement over the next two months.
    More and more, I see people posting messages containing the unspoken assumption that since the Indian E2 cutoff date has moved forward, it is likely to move forward further in the coming months. This is a false hope.

    Even with a cutoff date in early 2003, the CIS has sufficient inventory of Indian E2 adjustments on file to use up the remaining inventory of E2 visas for this fiscal year. The reason that the Visa Office advanced the priority date is to move it up to the point where overseas consular posts can take up the slack left by the CIS's inability to close out enough cases and avoid wasting visas this year.

    The CIS inventory of pending cases is massive. If there were no quota at all - if everyone were suddenly "current" - and no new cases were filed after today, it would still take the CIS four to five years to close out all of the pending cases that they already have in their inventory.

    Overseas consular posts maintain inventories of cases as well. When the priority date for a particular case starts to edge forward and it appears that the applicant may become "current' in the not too distant future, the applicant is told to submit all required supporting documents to the post or the NVC. When this is done, the applicant is reported to the Visa Office as being "documentarily qualified." This means that the case is in a position where an immigrant visa can be issued to the applicant as soon as a visa number becomes available.

    The inventory of documentarily qualified cases with current priority dates at a consular post never exceeds that post's ability to process all such cases within sixty days. Consular posts have very high bandwidth processing capabilities. No matter how many cases become current, they are able to process all of them within sixty days.

    The reason that the Indian E2 cutoff date has moved forward is that the Visa Office fears that the CIS will not be able to adjudicate enough adjustment of status applications to exhaust the annual quota. They have advanced the cutoff date in order to make more cases overseas eligible for final processing.

    This means that overseas consular posts have exhausted their inventories of Indian E2 cases with priority dates earlier than 2006 and the Visa Office had to move the cutoff date forward in order to make more cases eligible to be closed out.

    This does not mean that the CIS has closed out all of the pre-2006 cases pending in their inventory. Far from it. When the new fiscal year starts, Indian E2 is likely to retrogress back to late 2002 or early 2003. This is roughly the point reached by the CIS in processing their inventory of pending cases.

    Please understand that this is a temporary phenomenon and due entirely to the difference in the processing capabilities of the CIS and the overseas consular posts.

    I hope this clarifies matters."


    I am curious and have a few questions:

    1. What was Ron Gotcher's prediction (if any) BEFORE the Aug bulletin came out??

    2. In his long post above, he elaborates on one single theme- to avoid wastage of visa numbers, and since there are some CP cases which could be adjudicated faster, USCIS moved the dates. ABSOLUTELY NOTHING NEW HERE, everyone knows this. He is entirely silent on (a) the ACTUAL number of EB visas available for this fiscal year, (b) spillover from unused FB quota

    3. He is entirely silent on vertical spill over policy changing to horizontal spill over policy. Even without spillover, some minimum numbers will be available in October for EB2-I from the new fiscal year's quota.

    4. He is not giving any credible explanation on why the dates will move back to 2002-3 despite declaring there is a massive inventory? What are the numbers he has on this massive inventory? If there is such a massive inventory of pending EB-2 cases, and every one knows this, no one will be speculating like this.





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  • maddipati1
    10-02 03:27 PM
    im surprises why this is not already a part of this proposal!

    its a simple logic to include those who already bought a house.

    great idea nixtor.

    aps, no one keeps their money in bank as cash. everyone must have invested somewhere else. they should bring it back. thats the idea here. if u don't like the idea why not you keep out of this.


    Current homeowners who are waiting for their GC MUST also be exempted from cap. This clause has to be there. Without having any gurantee of getting GC these folks have invested their savings in buying home even when the prices were high, WHY because they had real intent of making US their permanent home. So these people should too be exempted from EB cap.





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  • Aah_GC
    07-11 12:41 PM
    Thanks for that useful information. People who suffer have an inclination to touch the extremes (and I am not sure where that Taxi driver gentleman got his PHD from).

    You definitely have to pay heavy taxes and earn less money - but then I imagine it is better than being a slave to desi consulting firms in the US.


    Please go to this site for Canadian immigration info -
    www.settlement.org

    You can find some bad things about Canada here -
    www.notcanada.com

    Weigh yourself. Thanks



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  • hiralal
    05-31 03:47 PM
    That's a much better suggestion than playing carrot-and-stick on real-estate bargains Mr. Hiralal.

    Now, what would really be effective is for our own people that are already naturalized and integrated and assimilated and digested in the US system to stand up for our cause.

    Please, do this for us seniors. As citizens and permanent residents, your voice will be effectively heard. Case in point - legislation on re-uniting families. To begin with, family based has nearly 60% more visas than employment based and nearly 80% of the visas available are exempt from per-country limits. And yet, the politicians want to reform family based immigration process because the people at the receiving end are their citizens. There is nothing wrong with it because the wait-time for extended family members are really long too which is a shame. But you see, there are bills that are actively discussed and passed in that category i.e fundamental solutions are being explored.

    Why is Mr. Bobby Jindal and likes of him not taking up our cause actively? People use their "humble-background" in campaign times. Why do they fail in holding out a helping hand to people that are stuck in such "humble-background"? Do you see such apathy in other minority communities?

    Thanks.

    there is no harm in having several campaigns ..that will atleast keep members active and interested ..in case you haven't noticed lot of people on EAD have just become laid back and lazy (and sort of insist that nothing will go wrong )





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  • gman
    08-03 09:21 PM
    I am EB3-ROW with PD of Feb 2006. My I-140 (filed as systems analyst) is approved and I filed my I4285 in Aug 16, 2007 (RD). I have approved EAD and AP good until Nov 21, 2008. I have been offered a job as Director of Software Development at another company in the same state. Because my I-485 has been pending for over 180 days I'm assuming I should be able to take the job under AC21. The new job seems a natural progression to my career (a promotion of course) but the USCIS has not issued definite guidelines on how to define a "similar" job. What's your advice on this? Should I take the job?

    Thanks,



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  • ivgclive
    07-21 11:46 AM
    My desi neighbor told me about it recently. What are your experience with Amway Quickstar. Have you guys made money from it?

    Best way to lose Friends!

    Best way to identify Bad Friends!





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  • sukhwinderd
    05-25 12:07 PM
    http://www.notcanada.com/

    you are much better of in india if you cant get GC in the US.



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  • sounakc
    08-13 05:23 PM
    riends need ur suggestion/help regarding the following matter:

    filed my I-485 in july 07. submitted my G325A form. didnt filed for my wifes AOS. since she was in india and we were mutually drifting apart. only mentioned her name in the G325A form, since she was still legally my wife.

    Now the official relief came as divorce this month.

    my question is do i need to send USCIS an updated G325A mentioning about my divorce? (along with a divorce certificate)

    will it create any problem when I try to include my next better half in future.





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  • krishmunn
    06-15 06:37 PM
    H1b cap is 65k+ 20K for US master degree and remaining are exemptions. Total approimately 125K were issued on 2007.

    You mean the cap-exempt made up 50K ? That appears too high. What is your source of info.
    When you say total 125K were issued in 2007, did you exclude
    the transfer (basically a new H1 not subject to cap) ?



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  • Kushal
    07-27 11:26 AM
    If you are making millions with Amway, why are you sitting with a EB-3 PD ? Go for EB-5 :)
    From Wiki "more than half of the distributors do not make any money, with the average distributor making less than $100 per month."

    What has EB5 to do with amway?
    Did I mention I'm making millions? Obviously on the way, but atleast I have something to fall back to if I loose my job. Do you?





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  • gc_chahiye
    06-28 08:03 PM
    I am analyzing for EB-2 (India). The current date for EB-2 India was Apr 1 2004 for month of June.

    Retrogression started Oct 1 2005. Before Oct 1 2005, persons with PD < Oct 1 2005 (remember PERM) could have submitted I-485. Some (not all remember namecheck) of these would be ready for adj June 1st 2007. These applicants can be divided into 2 categories: those with PD <= Apr 1 2004 and those with PD > Apr 1 2004.

    Applicants in first category will get GC in June and applicants in 2nd category will get GC in Jul. These applicants can exhaust 2007 quota.

    USCIS is taking 3 weeks for notification of 485's submiited in June. I would be very surprised if they process a June submission in < 3 months. So chances of June applicant using GC number are low.

    USCIS knew # applicants in above 2 categories: this appears trivial. If these applicants exhaust 2007 quota, USCIS knew that quota will get exhausted in Jul. The date can be of their choosing since the work involved must be pretty low.

    A similar analysis can be done for any other category. Correct me if my dates are wrong.


    but if USCIS knew this (that June+July can finish all the numbers for 2007) then why does the visa bulletin talk about retrogression in September timeframe for India/China? Why not August itself?



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  • geevikram
    11-09 11:41 PM
    I would love to see how close is Sachug with his predictions once Dec bulletin comes through..





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  • thomachan72
    08-19 08:19 AM
    I'm not from India, so you know how non-Indian will look at this issue.

    First of all, thanks to IV for helping our cause.
    Same as vinzen, that I usually just browse through this kinda topic, but I can't help to reply.

    Have several question:
    1. How many non-Indian in USA that watch bollywood movie? So, what makes him a high profile in the eyes of Immigration officer (IO)? Do we need to educate all IO to recoqnize all the actors in India, Pakistan, China, Japan, Korea and all others?
    I personally never heard of this SRK guy before reading this thread. So how would you guys expect the immigration officer, who's mostlikely non-Indian, would know this guy? I agree with Pappu that says "He is a famous actor to a very very small minority Indian Community in USA".
    2. Looking at how he make big deal of this in media. He probably cause this delay by himself. I can imagine the conversation at the immigration office as (copying all the answer from Ryan's earlier comment on what he's asked for when he came here):
    IO: Why are you visiting US?
    SRK: Do you know that I'm SRK?
    IO: Who do you work for?
    SRK: I'm SRK, now let me pass.
    IO: Where will you live in US?
    SRK: I'm SRK
    IO: How long have you been in US?
    SRK: I'm SRK
    IO: Do you have family here?
    SRK: I'm SRK
    And it goes on and on for 66 mins or 2 hrs until he finally realize that he's a nobody in US.

    This is the kinda thread that non-Indian will laugh at. There's lots of non-Indian that goes to this public forum (such as me). Just trying to help IV to not lose credential just because of this sorts of "indian" exclusive thread.

    My friend this is the greatest post ever. A real eye opener. But remember that it is through threads like these that you get to see the "real" Indian ideals. I am very sad to say that most of us Indians are screwed up with this idol worship. The conversation between SRK and IO that you put out is exactly true. I know a friend of mine who was waiting in line for the visa interview and ofcourse he is a megalomaniac (world revolves around him). He saw (or imagined) the visa officer talking tough to a women who apparently did not understand english right in front of him and decided he has to be the mesiah (savior). He jumped in and tried to save the women. Ultimately he was denied the visa and ofcourse he later met the women outside who was smiling because she had been granted one. that is why your conversation makes very good sense here. "I am SRK":D:D:D



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  • sumagiri
    07-23 08:04 PM
    Yes i am very much implying that ..EB2 PD was 02 in Dec, 01 in Jan, Unavailable in Feb-March 08. So there where very few visas given to EB2 india in first 8 months. Same with China went back to 03 in Dec and stayed there for most of the 8 months period.

    From Dec 08 Visa Bulletin

    Sachug22,

    It may be simply because EB2 numbers are used up fast for the quarter. It is right now a blind spot and an estimate of what happened depends on perspective.

    Any how, you brought up a new perspective so gave you a green.





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  • vbkris77
    05-29 11:14 AM
    So when there is less demand, they screwed us by not processing on-time and when there is more demand, they are processing ROW fast to give them more visas, so there won't be any spill-over. What a convenient system????

    Unless we understand that CIS/State is the reason for Visa wastage and not any specific country/group/EB1,EB2 etc.. We will not be able to fight united and till then we will not get this mess cleared.

    Mr. Oppenheim explained that a trickling effect of unused visa numbers between EB categories has helped keep EB1 and EB2 categories current in prior years. However, due to the processing of a high number of applications, this trickling effect has already occurred, but is not expected to occur again in FY2009. Mr. Oppenheim attributed this to the hard work of the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), as well as that of the DOS, as they have succeeded in processing enough cases to likely use all available visa numbers from all categories for FY2009. He stated that the DOS and the USCIS are supposed to process enough cases to use the annual allotment of visa numbers and not leave any available visas unused and wasted in any fiscal year.



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  • pointlesswait
    09-15 03:57 PM
    with everyone worried abt the economy and health reforms.. Immigration reforms are toast this year.

    While we must pursue the overall reforms,

    i suggest that we also seek temporary relief seeking lifting of the ban on filing for 485 for the next 2-3 months... this will help most EB3 and EB2 (I/C/) who missed the 2007 window.

    What are the chances of such a relief being provided?
    Will a mail campaign work?..plz raise your hand if you are interested..;)





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  • gcdreamer05
    07-03 01:43 PM
    This is a question to the attorney.

    There has been several posts in this site as well as other sites about the recent PIMS delay for stamping in Chennai and other consulates abroad. (That is visa extensions based on approved I-140). In my case i am in 6th year of h1b and am eligible to get 3 years extension as my I-140 was approved more than 2 years ago.

    Some members had said it takes anywhere between 10 days to more than a month or so.

    Please advice us who are waiting for visa extensions based on approved I-140, as to what we should do to mitigate this pims delay.

    Because people like me get 2-3 weeks holiday to go back home and if the stamping gets delayed then everything including our job is at risk.





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  • go_guy123
    03-17 11:13 AM
    such people cut in line in front of us and don't even bother paying money to IV. Why should we give them free advice. If they can spend money buying labor for 20K they can spend hundred dollars and consult a lawyer and ask their question. It is with such mentaility they are brought up with in their country- Currption and getting things done with money. But never paying anyone for a just cause. In my country people contribute only when they fear god in temples, for medical treatment or to astrologers!!

    At least on this forum we can have the resolve to fight such people who are hurting most of us.



    Good that DOL/USCIS is getting rid of labor selling by voiding after 45 days
    ( in the final rule that might be raised a bit ...to 90days ...which is justified and reasonable)





    Jerrome
    09-25 02:53 PM
    I don't think in any year EB2ROW has got 40K GC in the past, even when the economy was in good shape.

    Does anyone has links for the annual GC issuance per country/per category for 2008. I missed the link.

    The worst case scenario would be 20,000 max. That means EB2(I) will move to Mid or3 rd quarter of 2006 by end of 2010.



    using following report
    NAFSA | Resource Library | Selected PERM Program Statistics - Jan 2009 (http://www.nafsa.org/regulatory_information.sec/regulatory_document_library.dlib/employment-based_immigration/selected_perm_program)
    http://www.nafsa.org/uploadedFiles/selected_perm_program.pdf?n=2558

    Using the report from 12/31/2008 (did not find a newer report)

    PERM received: 20,752 (18,863 electronic; 1,889 mail-in)
    PERM completed: 4,571 (3,074 certified; 1,328 denied; 169 withdrawn)
    PERM pending : 53200

    For next 3 quarters we assume they receive 10K applications and approve 5k each quarter we get PERM pending (53200 + 3 * 10k - 3 * 5k) = 68K pending PERM.

    For this 68K, i am expecting 30% from India and 10% from China and 20% from EB3-ROW. We get 27K EB2 ROW PERM pending.

    If 70% of them are approved and apply for I-485 with 1.2 dependent we get approx 40K I-485 applications in EB2-ROW.

    So in case all PERM backlog is removed we will get 40K more EB2-ROW applications. Worst case scenario.





    Sunx_2004
    12-07 01:29 PM
    Very good idea, with interest rate going down there is an opportunity for those who are looking to buy the house.
    And for those who already have house, If their green card messed up than you see more foreclosures.
    No matter, who are planning to buy house or who already bought house both will contribute to the economy in their own way.


    I guess many have given up and many are just trying to hang on to their jobs ..but don't give up ..just think about the peace of mind that a GC gives ..no more headaches from lawyers, USCIS, RFE's, employers, DL etc ..at the very least comment on this idea but before you dismiss it come up with a better idea (it is very stupid of people who just criticize but don't come up with alternative ideas).
    ----------------
    what if all immigrants and members were to call their local realtors - show interest in buying a house and once the realtor is interested ..tell her / him that you are postponing your home buying decision since the green card has got delayed ..and maybe ask him / her to tell the NAR (national realtor agency) to speak about speeding green cards to legal immigrants who are already here ??
    ...if people are motivated then maybe we can do media campaign too ..
    ------
    the above idea does not need any money / members can do it from the comfort of their homes ..please comment and either support this or come up with better idea ..Thanks in advance !!!
    (if the idea sounds good ..then all members can spread the word in their community - i.e. temples, churches, local potlucks, subdivision, apartment, AMWAY meetings etc etc ..at the very least IV membership will increase)